Friday, October 29, 2004

Minnesota now a Red State?

One site I've been checking regularly for the last few months is The map shows the projected electoral votes based on recent polls. While the results you see are dependent on the validity of the most recent polls, it provides a neat "snapshot."

Today, for the first time since I started checking, Minnesota has become a Red State due to the results of a Zogby poll. (That would be a "Red State" in the Bush-supporting sense. Minnesota has always had the other kind of red tendencies.)

Wisconsin is also briefly in the Kerry camp today, also due to a Zogby poll. Look for both results to be upstaged by even more recent polls, perhaps by the time you check the link, the situation may be reversed. Still, the fact that Minnesota is in play should be quite surprising.

At the same time, the upper midwest has been trending conservative during the last decade. Were it not for Clinton, who had across the board appeal, I suspect the upper midwest would have gone "red" quite awhile ago.

Senator Kerry is not Bill Clinton. He doesn't have the charm; he'll certainly never attain the nickname of "slick." So Kerry can get 10,000 people at a rally in Madison. This is no big deal. It's Madison, folks. Noam Chomsky could probably get 20,000 people, and that's without the support of Bruce Springsteen.

I'm going to go out on a limb here and predict both Minnesota and Wisconsin for Bush.


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