Tuesday, November 02, 2004

Blogging the Vote

Baby's down for the night. Dishes washed. Coffee poured. Polls closing on the east coast . . .

. . . here we go.

7:00 pm: The polls are closing out east. Fox News is making some calls.

Kerry - 77 electoral votes
Bush - 66 electoral votes

However, this is the east coast, where Kerry is expected to have support. No surprises, though the Fox News gang seems surprised that Kerry took New Jersey.

Mood: Still cautiously optimistic.

7:13 pm: We switched over to CBS to see what Dan Rather was saying, and when we switched back, the tally had changed. Fox is now projecting Bush the winner in S. Carolina:

Kerry - 77 electoral votes
Bush - 74 electoral votes

Mood: Still cautiously optimistic.

Oh, who am I kidding? Even if Bush is far ahead at midnight, I'll still only be "cautiously optimistic."

7:22 pm: With 24% of the Florida vote in, Bush is leading 55% to 45%. Fox News says it's too close to call. Honestly, I don't understand how this works. In other states they're calling it with only 10% of the vote in.

Mood: Cautiously optimistic and slightly bored. We might throw in a DVD or something and check back in a little bit. This is going to be a long evening.

7:25 pm: Juan Williams says that the current Florida results indicate "bad news for Bush." Uh, . . . what am I missing here?

7:30 pm: A Fox News reporter slips and calls Senator Kerry "President Kerry."

Bush - 89 electoral votes
Kerry - 77 electoral votes

7:33 pm: North Carolina and Virginia have been called for President Bush.

Bush - 102 electoral votes
Kerry - 77 electoral votes

7:52 pm: Susan Estrich's attitude is really bugging me. What kind of accent is that anyway?

8:00 pm: Polls are closing in the Central Time Zone. Wisconsin is "too close to call," but Fox News is calling some obvious states: New York, Rhode Island for Kerry; Texas, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota, Wyoming for President Bush.

Bush - 156 electoral votes
Kerry - 112 electoral votes

Fox wants to call Russ Feingold as the winner in the Wisconsin Senate race, but won't yet.

Mood: Still cautiously optimistic. They're not calling the swing states. I'm guessing Florida for Bush, but Ohio and PA for Kerry.

8:06: My wife reports from the couch that Bush is barely ahead in Ohio, but Kerry is ahead in PA by "a lot."

I wish I had a laptop and a wireless connection. I'll take some donations.

8:15 pm: In Florida, 53% of the vote is in. Bush 56%, Kerry 43%. Not sure why they're holding off on this.

8:16 pm: So far the projected results on Fox News are matching the results from the 2000 vote. Remember, that's still a win for Bush. Brit Hume is suggesting that Bush is doing much better than exit polls have indicated.

8:24 pm: L'enfant woke up temporarily and whined a bit. She must have had a bad dream that Kerry won.

I made a mistake. In Florida, 54% of the vote is in, 53% Bush, 46% Kerry. They're still saying it's too close to call, but it's looking good for the President. Brit Hume gets a bit confused when the graphic gets stuck and keeps switching between Missouri and Mississippi.

8:31 pm: Fox News is calling Louisiana for President Bush. Fox is also projecting a sound defeat of the Colorado Electoral Vote referendum. Good for Colorado.

The news ticker says something about polls in Pennsylvania still being open due to long lines, and polls not closing for another half hour yet. Kerry is far ahead in PA so far.

Bush - 165 electoral votes
Kerry - 112 electoral votes

8:38 pm: I can't stop watching the Florida vote. 64% of the vote is in: Bush 52%, Kerry 47%. The gap is closing, . . .

8:43 pm: So far every state that's had a "definition of marriage" referendum on the ballot is deciding for defining marriage as solely between a man and a woman--by a wide margin.

Joe Carter is live-blogging, too.

Chumley confesses that this is the first time he's ever voted. He says it felt great!

8:50 pm: Apropos of nothing in particular, my wife begins telling me that she likes Arnold, but that Maria really needs to put on some weight. "She looks terrible. Maybe some makeup would help."

The Bush family is on--live--and the President is confident. Though most of their attention seems to be on Barney rather than on the returns.

L'enfante is fussing again, only temporarily.

8:56 pm: They're not calling Minnesota yet, but report the tally at Bush 54%, Kerry 45%, with no indication how much of the vote is in. This is going to be an interesting one. If Minnesota goes to Bush, that may be an indication of a real sea change in that state.

Fox News is projecting Mississippi for President Bush.

Bush - 171 electoral votes
Kerry - 112 electoral votes

Mood: Slightly more optimistic.

9:00 pm: More polls closing. Utah goes to President Bush. No surprise there.

Wisconsin with 9% of the vote in, Bush 56%, Kerry 43%. Perhaps my prediction will come to pass.

9:14 pm: Fox News is now projecting President Bush as the winner in Missouri and Arkansas.

Bush - 193 electoral votes
Kerry - 112 electoral votes

Live feed. Barack Obama's wife is speaking, right? She's talking about how her husband is so special, right? She's talking about midwestern values, right? That's who Barack Obama is, right? She introduces "My baby's daddy!" Right?

Loud cheers. Then the sound cuts out a second, and in the silence we can hear Brit Hume ask "Did we lose sound, here?" Yup.

9:21 pm: La Shawn Barber is live-blogging, too. I just added her to the blogroll. Go check her out.

Brit Hume notes that 100% of the vote in Kentucky is in, but that they're still not calling it. He'll explain why right after this break.

My wife says "I feel like throwing up," but don't think there's a correlation.

9:27 pm: Florida has 83% of the vote in. I think Bush is ahead by 5 points, but they're not calling it yet. The problem with Kentucky, they say, is a very close Senate race and that even though the ticker says 100% of the vote is in, that's a rounding-up, and it's not really 100%.

Minnesota has 11% of the vote in with Kerry ahead; Wisconsin has 14% of the vote in with Bush ahead.

Mood: Not-so-cautiously optimistic. And yet . . .

9:35 pm: Joe Carter says:

Twelve states have initiatives to define marriage between a man and a woman (AK, GA, KY, MI, MS, MO, ND, OH, OK). So far it isn't looking good for gay marriage supporters. In almost every state the initiative is passing 2 to 1. (Three states -- MO, OR, and UT -- are still too early to call)

9:51 pm: Not much movement on the big board. What's going on around the blogosphere?

Sean Hackbarth is talking exit polls in Wisconsin.

Ann Althouse reports that "equanimity" is flowing through her.

Frank hasn't posted today, but yesterday's post is nicely inspirational.

Carol's having blogger problems. Odd. Blogger's been working quite well for me tonight.

They're calling Pennsylvania for Kerry.

Bush - 193 electoral votes
Kerry - 133 electoral votes

Mood: Ebulient. But no reason for it. This is going to be a squeaker.

10:12 pm: Projecting Washington for Kerry, Idaho for Bush.

Bush - 197 electoral votes
Kerry - 144 electoral votes

Mood: Sudden worry. It's going to come down to the upper midwest this time.

10:16 pm: Wife's tired. She's going to bed. I kinda want to go to bed, too. We were up early this morning thanks to L'enfante, and I'm beat. (Our little offspring is turning out to be a "morning person.")

10:23 pm: Fox News calls Montana and Arizona for the President.

Bush - 210 electoral votes
Kerry - 144 electoral votes

Mood: Tired and edgy.

10:30 pm: I can't take the stress. I'm now ignoring Fox News and checking out this map.

Bush is ahead by 4 points in Ohio with 62% of precincts reporting. They're not calling it, though.

Bush is ahead by 5 points in Florida with 95% of precincts reporting. They're not calling Florida either, though.

Bush is ahead by 7 points in Wisconsin with 30% of precincts reporting.

Kerry is ahead by 9 points in Minnesota with 29% of precincts reporting.

Kerry is ahead by 5 points in Michigan with 31% of precincts reporting.

Mood: tired, nervous.


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